Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 17h to kick-offHNK Hajduk Split – NK Varaždin
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 46%
- Draw
- 33%
- NK Varaždin
- 22%
| HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | NK Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.19 | 3.08 | 4.57 |
- Total goals
- 2.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Hajduk Split
46% HNK Hajduk Split to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 4th
- HNK Hajduk Split attack v NK Varaždin defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 5th
- HNK Hajduk Split defence v NK Varaždin attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 0.88
- HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varaždin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 3rd | 1.41 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.74 · 1st | 0.88 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.78 · 3rd | +0.53 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.93 · 3rd | 1.80 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.87 | +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet
- 38%
- HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 1:0
- 12.3%
- 0:0
- 11.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- NK Varaždin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · HNK Hajduk Split
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Varaždin
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.