Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 16h to kick-offNK Slaven Belupo – GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Slaven Belupo
- 20%
- Draw
- 29%
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 51%
| NK Slaven Belupo | Draw | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.89 | 3.47 | 1.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GNK Dinamo Zagreb
51% GNK Dinamo Zagreb to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb attack v NK Slaven Belupo defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 8th
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb defence v NK Slaven Belupo attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.19 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.00 – 1.62
- NK Slaven Belupo v GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Slaven Belupo | GNK Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 8th | (better) 2.24 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.68 · 8th | (better) 0.91 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 8th | (better) +1.32 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 0.93 · 8th | (better) 2.23 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +1.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet
- 34%
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 9.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Slaven Belupo sample
- 20 matches
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Slaven Belupo
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.