Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeClub Brugge KV 3:2 Sint-Truidense VV
Club Brugge KV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Club Brugge KV's attack: 2.67 xG against 2.16 projected (+0.51). Sint-Truidense VV produced 1.81 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.40).
Goals
- 41' Nicolò Tresoldi Club Brugge KV · 0.29 xG chance 1–0
- 43' Nicolò Tresoldi Club Brugge KV · 0.69 xG chance 2–0
- 55' Ilias Sebaoui (pen.) Sint-Truidense VV · 0.82 xG chance 2–1
- 75' Nicolò Tresoldi Club Brugge KV · 0.94 xG chance 3–1
- 90' Shogo Taniguchi Sint-Truidense VV · 0.51 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- Club Brugge KV
- 54% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Club Brugge KV produced 0.51 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 8
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.22
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 2.60
- 0.38
- Set-piece xG
- 0.05
- 0.63
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.67 for Club Brugge KV and 1.03 for Sint-Truidense VV.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 4.49 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Club Brugge KV
- Sint-Truidense VV
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.20 xG created 1.32 xGA
- W 1.83 created, 0.76 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- L 0.65 created, 1.38 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 2.94 created, 2.09 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- W 2.12 created, 1.96 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 4.88 created, 1.10 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
1.80 xG created 1.33 xGA
- W 3.38 created, 0.77 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.85 created, 2.49 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 2.40 created, 0.44 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 0.72 created, 1.69 conceded against SK Beveren
- L 2.00 created, 1.87 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- L 1.45 created, 0.74 conceded against KV Mechelen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged3 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV to win | 6.00 | +32.0% | Lost |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +27.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +24.6% | Lost |
| Club Brugge KV not to score | 13.00 | +23.9% | Lost |
| Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals | 2.75 | +16.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +8.0% | Won |
| Sint-Truidense VV to score | 1.36 | +6.9% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 54.3% | 67.7% | −13.5 pp | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23.7% | 17.2% | +6.5 pp | 4.21 |
| Sint-Truidense VV | 22.0% | 15.1% | +7.0 pp | 4.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV to score | 90.5% | 92.6% | −2.1 pp | 1.11 |
| Club Brugge KV not to score | 9.5% | 7.4% | +2.1 pp | 10.49 |
| Sint-Truidense VV to score | 78.3% | 68.7% | +9.6 pp | 1.28 |
| Sint-Truidense VV not to score | 21.7% | 31.3% | −9.6 pp | 4.62 |
| Both teams to score | 72.0% | 62.5% | +9.5 pp | 1.39 |
| Both teams not to score | 28.0% | 37.5% | −9.5 pp | 3.58 |
| Club Brugge KV 2+ goals | 66.1% | 75.0% | −8.9 pp | 1.51 |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 33.9% | 25.0% | +8.9 pp | 2.95 |
| Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals | 42.2% | 33.7% | +8.5 pp | 2.37 |
| Sint-Truidense VV at most 1 goal | 57.8% | 66.3% | −8.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.4% | 89.4% | +1.0 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.6% | 10.6% | −1.0 pp | 10.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.6% | 73.7% | −2.1 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.4% | 26.3% | +2.1 pp | 3.52 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.