Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:15
6d 17h to kick-offRAAL La Louvière – Club Brugge KV
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- RAAL La Louvière
- 24%
- Draw
- 26%
- Club Brugge KV
- 50%
| RAAL La Louvière | Draw | Club Brugge KV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.12 | 3.88 | 2.00 |
- Total goals
- 3.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
RAAL La Louvière
- Model
- 24.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 12.2%
- Probability gap
- +12.1 pp
- Edge
- +81.9%
- Fair odds
- 4.12
- Market odds
- 7.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.33
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 25.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.2%
- Probability gap
- +6.6 pp
- Edge
- +22.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.88
- Market odds
- 4.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.07
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.4%
-
Club Brugge KV
- Model
- 50.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 68.6%
- Probability gap
- −18.6 pp
- Edge
- −33.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.00
- Market odds
- 1.33 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.10
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.4%
Outcomes with value
RAAL La Louvière to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Club Brugge KV not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
RAAL La Louvière to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
RAAL La Louvière to win
Model 24.3% vs. bookmaker 12.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Club Brugge KV
50% Club Brugge KV to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 15th
- Club Brugge KV attack v RAAL La Louvière defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 13th
- Club Brugge KV defence v RAAL La Louvière attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.35 – 1.92
- RAAL La Louvière v Club Brugge KV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | RAAL La Louvière | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.29 · 11th | (better) 2.16 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.65 · 11th | (better) 1.20 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.36 · 12th | (better) +0.96 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.08 · 13th | (better) 1.90 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.04 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet
- 23%
- Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 1:2
- 10.8%
- 2:2
- 7.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RAAL La Louvière sample
- 20 matches
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · RAAL La Louvière
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Club Brugge KV
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.