Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 20:45
6d 19h to kick-offSV Zulte Waregem – KAA Gent
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- SV Zulte Waregem
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- KAA Gent
- 28%
| SV Zulte Waregem | Draw | KAA Gent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.50 | 3.12 | 3.59 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
SV Zulte Waregem
- Model
- 40.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 33.2%
- Probability gap
- +6.9 pp
- Edge
- +10.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.50
- Market odds
- 2.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.62
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.1%
- Probability gap
- +4.0 pp
- Edge
- +4.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.12
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.27
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.7%
-
KAA Gent
- Model
- 27.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 38.8%
- Probability gap
- −10.9 pp
- Edge
- −34.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.59
- Market odds
- 2.35 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.77
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.7%
Outcomes with value
SV Zulte Waregem to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
SV Zulte Waregem to win
Model 40.1% vs. bookmaker 33.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans SV Zulte Waregem
40% SV Zulte Waregem to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 2nd
- SV Zulte Waregem attack v KAA Gent defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 12th
- SV Zulte Waregem defence v KAA Gent attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.05 vs +0.45
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.09
- SV Zulte Waregem v KAA Gent
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SV Zulte Waregem | KAA Gent |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.26 · 12th | 1.16 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 1.31 · 7th | (better) 0.66 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.05 · 9th | (better) +0.50 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.34 · 9th | (better) 1.81 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.05 | (better) +0.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- SV Zulte Waregem clean sheet
- 31%
- SV Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:0
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Zulte Waregem sample
- 20 matches
- KAA Gent sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SV Zulte Waregem
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · KAA Gent
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.