Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 16:30
31d 17h to kick-offSanta Clara – Gil Vicente
Model updated 7 October, 23:11 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Santa Clara
- 42%
- Draw
- 36%
- Gil Vicente
- 22%
| Santa Clara | Draw | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.36 | 2.78 | 4.61 |
- Total goals
- 1.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score
- 41%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Santa Clara
42% Santa Clara to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 8th
- Santa Clara attack v Gil Vicente defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 9th
- Santa Clara defence v Gil Vicente attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.74 vs +0.43
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.11 – 0.75
- Santa Clara v Gil Vicente
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Santa Clara | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.35 · 6th | 1.31 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.69 · 3rd | 0.88 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.67 · 5th | +0.43 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.93 · 5th | 1.76 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.74 | +0.43 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 48% of the model's distribution.
- Santa Clara clean sheet
- 44%
- Santa Clara 2+ goals
- 31%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score: no
- 59%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 1:0
- 15.5%
- 0:0
- 15.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Gil Vicente sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Santa Clara
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Gil Vicente
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 23:11
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.