xgEdge

Expected goals

MTK Budapest expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

NB I (Hungary) · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

MTK Budapest's attacking and defensive expected goals in NB I (Hungary) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

MTK Budapest xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.14 xG per match
#7/12
Attack (xG per match) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2.70
#2 Debreceni VSC 2.45
#3 Ferencváros TC 2.35
#4 Újpest 2.23
#5 Puskás Akadémia 2.21
#6 Vasas 2.21
#7 MTK Budapest 2.14
#8 ETO FC Győr 1.83
#9 Paksi FC 1.78
#10 Kisvárda FC 1.39
#11 Budapest Honvéd FC 1.23
#12 Zalaegerszegi TE 1.21
League avg
1.99
Total
10.69 5 matches
Defence
1.77 xGA per match
=5/12
Defence (xGA per match) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 1.31
#2 Ferencváros TC 1.64
#3 Puskás Akadémia 1.73
#4 Budapest Honvéd FC 1.74
=5 MTK Budapest 1.77
=5 Vasas 1.77
#7 Zalaegerszegi TE 1.79
#8 Újpest 2.08
#9 Debreceni VSC 2.13
#10 Kisvárda FC 2.28
#11 ETO FC Győr 2.68
#12 Paksi FC 2.87
League avg
1.99
Total
8.86 5 matches
xG difference
+0.37 xGD per match
#5/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Nyiregyháza Spartacus +1.39
#2 Ferencváros TC +0.72
#3 Puskás Akadémia +0.48
#4 Vasas +0.44
#5 MTK Budapest +0.37
#6 Debreceni VSC +0.32
#7 Újpest +0.15
#8 Budapest Honvéd FC -0.51
#9 Zalaegerszegi TE -0.58
#10 ETO FC Győr -0.85
#11 Kisvárda FC -0.89
#12 Paksi FC -1.09
League avg
0.00
Total
+1.83 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.62 xPts per match
#5/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2.12
#2 Ferencváros TC 1.91
#3 Vasas 1.68
#4 Puskás Akadémia 1.65
#5 MTK Budapest 1.62
#6 Debreceni VSC 1.49
#7 Újpest 1.48
#8 Budapest Honvéd FC 1.08
#9 ETO FC Győr 1.03
#10 Kisvárda FC 0.98
#11 Zalaegerszegi TE 0.96
#12 Paksi FC 0.85
League avg
1.40
Total
8.11 vs 9 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 5 of 8 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

MTK Budapest's underlying numbers sit close to the NB I (Hungary) average. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.37 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 8 goals are 2.69 below 10.69 xG, while 5 points are 3.11 below 8.11 xPts — both over the 5 matches with xG. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
8 10.69 -2.69 scored 2.69 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 8.86 +0.14 conceded 0.14 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 8.11 -3.11 3.11 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

MTK Budapest are 2.69 goals below their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
8
xG
10.69
Gap
-2.69
Fri 07/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Fri 28/08 Sat 05/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.30 -1.19 -0.59 -0.38 -2.69 +0.30 -1.49 +0.60 +0.21 -2.31 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
MTK Budapest: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 07/08 Puskás Akadémia 2 1.70 +0.30 +0.30
Sat 15/08 Újpest 1 2.49 -1.49 -1.19
Sat 22/08 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2 1.40 +0.60 -0.59
Fri 28/08 Debreceni VSC 2 1.79 +0.21 -0.38
Sat 05/09 Kisvárda FC 1 3.31 -2.31 -2.69

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

MTK Budapest xG trend

Current form +0.37 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 5 matches. The worst was against Puskás Akadémia on Fri 07/08 (-1.93).

npxG · last 5
2.14
npxGA · last 5
1.77
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -1.93 Fri 07/08 +1.52 Sat 15/08 -0.69 Sat 22/08 +0.35 Fri 28/08 +2.58 Sat 05/09 +0.37 season avg
MTK Budapest: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 07/08 Puskás Akadémia 1.70 3.63 -1.93 -1.93
Sat 15/08 Újpest 2.49 0.97 +1.52 -0.20
Sat 22/08 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 1.40 2.09 -0.69 -0.37
Fri 28/08 Debreceni VSC 1.79 1.44 +0.35 -0.19
Sat 05/09 Kisvárda FC 3.31 0.73 +2.58 +0.37

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.14 npxG and 1.77 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 11 hardest of 12 in NB I (Hungary)
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 11 hardest of 12 in NB I (Hungary)
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · number 11 hardest of 12

  1. ETO FC Győr Home +0.01
  2. Kisvárda FC Home −0.52
  3. Debreceni VSC Away −0.02
  4. Nyiregyháza Spartacus Home +0.41
  5. Újpest Away −0.21
  6. Puskás Akadémia Home +0.03
  7. Budapest Honvéd FC Away −0.10
  8. Zalaegerszegi TE Home −0.22

Last 5

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 11 hardest of 12

  1. ETO FC Győr Home +0.01
  2. Kisvárda FC Home −0.52
  3. Debreceni VSC Away −0.02
  4. Nyiregyháza Spartacus Home +0.41
  5. Újpest Away −0.21

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

MTK Budapest shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. MTK Budapest take 17.0 shots a match (league 15.9) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.12), =4 in NB I (Hungary) for volume and #7 for quality. 54% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%).

Attack

Shot volume
17.0 shots per match
=4/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 22.3
#2 Paksi FC 19.2
#3 Debreceni VSC 17.6
=4 MTK Budapest 17.0
=4 Vasas 17.0
=6 Budapest Honvéd FC 16.0
=6 Ferencváros TC 16.0
#8 Újpest 15.7
#9 Puskás Akadémia 15.0
#10 Kisvárda FC 13.8
#11 ETO FC Győr 11.7
#12 Zalaegerszegi TE 10.6
League avg
15.9
Total
85 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#7/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 ETO FC Győr 0.16
#2 Puskás Akadémia 0.15
#3 Ferencváros TC 0.15
#4 Újpest 0.14
#5 Debreceni VSC 0.14
#6 Vasas 0.13
#7 MTK Budapest 0.13
#8 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 0.12
#9 Zalaegerszegi TE 0.11
#10 Kisvárda FC 0.10
#11 Paksi FC 0.09
#12 Budapest Honvéd FC 0.08
League avg
0.12
Total
10.69 npxG from 85 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.4 shots per match
#5/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Ferencváros TC 8.7
#2 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 11.5
#3 Vasas 13.4
#4 Budapest Honvéd FC 14.0
#5 MTK Budapest 15.4
#6 Zalaegerszegi TE 16.2
#7 Puskás Akadémia 16.3
#8 Újpest 16.7
#9 Paksi FC 17.2
#10 Debreceni VSC 18.8
#11 Kisvárda FC 19.0
#12 ETO FC Győr 20.3
League avg
15.9
Total
77 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#5/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across NB I (Hungary), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Puskás Akadémia 0.11
#2 Zalaegerszegi TE 0.11
#3 Debreceni VSC 0.11
#4 Nyiregyháza Spartacus 0.11
#5 MTK Budapest 0.12
#6 Kisvárda FC 0.12
#7 Újpest 0.12
#8 Budapest Honvéd FC 0.12
#9 ETO FC Győr 0.13
#10 Vasas 0.13
#11 Paksi FC 0.17
#12 Ferencváros TC 0.19
League avg
0.12
Total
8.86 npxGA from 77 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

54% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 46 of 85 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 51 of 77 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

MTK Budapest home and away xG

MTK Budapest per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 5 3 with xG 3 2 with xG
xG / match 2.14 2.14
xGA / match 2.15 1.21
xGD / match -0.01 +0.94
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.36 2.02

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every MTK Budapest match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
8 5 with xG
xG / match
2.14
xGA / match
1.77
xGD / match
+0.37
Points
9 of 24
  1. Sun 20/09 ETO FC Győr H
  2. Sat 05/09 Kisvárda FC H Against the chances xG 3.31 xGA 0.73 xGD +2.58
  3. Fri 28/08 Debreceni VSC A xG 1.79 xGA 1.44 xGD +0.35
  4. Sat 22/08 Nyiregyháza Spartacus H xG 1.40 xGA 2.09 xGD -0.69
  5. Sat 15/08 Újpest A xG 2.49 xGA 0.97 xGD +1.52
  6. Fri 07/08 Puskás Akadémia H Weakest underlying xG 1.70 xGA 3.63 xGD -1.93
  7. Sat 01/08 Budapest Honvéd FC A
  8. Mon 27/07 Zalaegerszegi TE H

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.63. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

MTK Budapest in NB I (Hungary)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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