Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 16h to kick-offMFK Skalica – FC Spartak Trnava
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Skalica
- 23%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 49%
| MFK Skalica | Draw | FC Spartak Trnava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.26 | 3.65 | 2.03 |
- Total goals
- 2.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Spartak Trnava
49% FC Spartak Trnava to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- FC Spartak Trnava attack v MFK Skalica defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 12th
- FC Spartak Trnava defence v MFK Skalica attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.21 – 1.76
- MFK Skalica v FC Spartak Trnava
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Skalica | FC Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.28 · 10th | (better) 2.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.98 · 8th | (better) 0.96 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.71 · 9th | (better) +1.61 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.98 · 10th | (better) 2.25 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +1.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Spartak Trnava clean sheet
- 27%
- FC Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 1:2
- 11.2%
- 0:2
- 7.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Skalica
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Spartak Trnava
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.