Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 18:00
12d 2h to kick-offFC Spartak Trnava – ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 45%
- Draw
- 28%
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 28%
| FC Spartak Trnava | Draw | ŠK Slovan Bratislava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.23 | 3.61 | 3.63 |
- Total goals
- 3.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Spartak Trnava
45% FC Spartak Trnava to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 2nd
- FC Spartak Trnava attack v ŠK Slovan Bratislava defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 2nd
- FC Spartak Trnava defence v ŠK Slovan Bratislava attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs +1.25
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.34
- FC Spartak Trnava v ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Spartak Trnava | ŠK Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.57 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.40 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.96 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.12 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.61 · 1st from 4 matches | +1.28 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.25 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.08 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.31 | +1.25 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Spartak Trnava clean sheet
- 23%
- FC Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Spartak Trnava
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.