Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeMFK Skalica 0:1 FK Železiarne Podbrezová
MFK Skalica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. FK Železiarne Podbrezová won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Železiarne Podbrezová's attack: 2.00 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.50). MFK Skalica produced 1.10 xG against 1.53 projected (−0.43).
The model against the result
- MFK Skalica
- 36%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Železiarne Podbrezová produced 0.50 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 16
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.13
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 0.67 created, 0.42 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.95 created, 1.55 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.08 created, 3.25 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 2.43 created, 0.93 conceded against FC Košice
- D 0.34 created, 2.63 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 0.77 created, 1.54 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.47 xG created 1.99 xGA
- L 1.10 created, 1.95 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 1.63 created, 0.30 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 0.98 created, 3.14 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 2.16 created, 1.80 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 0.49 created, 2.23 conceded against DAC 1904
- D 2.44 created, 2.51 conceded against FC Košice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Skalica to win | 3.30 | +20.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +11.0% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | +5.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Skalica | 36.4% | 28.5% | +7.9 pp | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28.4% | 26.8% | +1.6 pp | 3.52 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová | 35.2% | 44.7% | −9.5 pp | 2.84 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | 55.7% | +10.8 pp | 1.50 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.4% | 44.3% | −10.8 pp | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 76.6% | +7.8 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 23.4% | −7.8 pp | 6.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 53.9% | +6.2 pp | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 46.1% | −6.2 pp | 2.51 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.