Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:00
27d 4h to kick-offLevski Sofia – CSKA Sofia
Model updated 4 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Levski Sofia
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- CSKA Sofia
- 27%
| Levski Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.48 | 3.07 | 3.69 |
- Total goals
- 2.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Levski Sofia
40% Levski Sofia to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 2nd
- Levski Sofia attack v CSKA Sofia defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 2nd
- Levski Sofia defence v CSKA Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.10 vs +1.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.03
- Levski Sofia v CSKA Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Levski Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.09 · 3rd | (better) 2.24 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.73 · 1st | 0.86 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +1.36 · 3rd | (better) +1.38 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 2.19 · 3rd | (better) 2.26 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +1.10 | (better) +1.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Levski Sofia clean sheet
- 33%
- Levski Sofia 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 1:0
- 10.3%
- 0:0
- 10.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Levski Sofia
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · CSKA Sofia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.