Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeSlavia Sofia 1:2 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Slavia Sofia's attack: 2.43 xG against 0.91 projected (+1.52).
The model against the result
- Slavia Sofia
- 16%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 57% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Slavia Sofia produced 1.52 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 13
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.22
- 0.15
Recent form
0.47 xG created 1.54 xGA
- D 0.37 created, 1.53 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 2.57 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 0.60 created, 0.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 1.09 created, 0.93 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- D 0.46 created, 0.95 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- L 0.32 created, 2.34 conceded against Levski Sofia
1.57 xG created 1.24 xGA
- W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- W 2.54 created, 1.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- L 1.03 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 0.80 created, 0.88 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 1.35 created, 1.71 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 2.62 created, 0.88 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2+ goals | 2.00 | +10.6% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | +8.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +5.9% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +5.6% | Won |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to win | 1.80 | +3.3% | Won |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to score | 1.20 | +2.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 16.0% | 20.9% | −4.9 pp | 6.25 |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.9% | −0.2 pp | 3.75 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 57.4% | 52.2% | +5.1 pp | 1.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia to score | 62.9% | 58.9% | +4.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Slavia Sofia not to score | 37.1% | 41.1% | −4.1 pp | 2.70 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to score | 85.6% | 78.3% | +7.3 pp | 1.17 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia not to score | 14.4% | 21.7% | −7.3 pp | 6.94 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 48.5% | +6.9 pp | 1.80 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.6% | 51.5% | −6.9 pp | 2.24 |
| Slavia Sofia 2+ goals | 22.9% | 25.0% | −2.1 pp | 4.36 |
| Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal | 77.1% | 75.0% | +2.1 pp | 1.30 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2+ goals | 55.3% | 46.3% | +9.0 pp | 1.81 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia at most 1 goal | 44.7% | 53.7% | −9.0 pp | 2.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | 70.9% | +8.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 29.1% | −8.3 pp | 4.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 45.4% | +6.7 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 54.6% | −6.7 pp | 2.09 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Slavia Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.