Monday, 12/10/2026 at 21:00
8d 19h to kick-offShamrock Rovers – Bohemian FC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Shamrock Rovers
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Bohemian FC
- 34%
| Shamrock Rovers | Draw | Bohemian FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.72 | 3.46 | 2.92 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
Shamrock Rovers
- Model
- 36.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.6%
- Probability gap
- −5.7 pp
- Edge
- −20.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.72
- Market odds
- 2.15 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.9%
- Probability gap
- +2.0 pp
- Edge
- −1.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.46
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.63
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
-
Bohemian FC
- Model
- 34.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.5%
- Probability gap
- +3.8 pp
- Edge
- +2.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.92
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.06
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
Outcomes with value
Bohemian FC to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Bohemian FC to win
Model 34.3% vs. bookmaker 30.5%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Bohemian FC to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Bohemian FC to win 34.3%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 30.5%. The gap between the two is 3.8%.
- The model's expected goals for Bohemian FC are their own fitted attack times the defence in front of them, and the fit rates that attack at 1.24 — above the competition's average of 1.00.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Shamrock Rovers | Bohemian FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | +0.36 | +0.95 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +5.43 | +2.97 |
| Points won minus expected | +10.14 | +0.60 |
| npxG per shot | 0.10 | 0.10 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Shamrock Rovers to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 4th
- Shamrock Rovers attack v Bohemian FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 1st
- Shamrock Rovers defence v Bohemian FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.36 vs +0.95
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 1.44
- Shamrock Rovers v Bohemian FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shamrock Rovers | Bohemian FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.41 · 4th | (better) 1.63 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.14 · 3rd | (better) 1.10 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.27 · 3rd | (better) +0.53 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.58 · 3rd | (better) 1.75 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.36 | (better) +0.95 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Shamrock Rovers clean sheet
- 21%
- Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shamrock Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shamrock Rovers
- 15 matches
- Away xG sample · Bohemian FC
- 14 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.