Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 13:30
6d 12h to kick-offArsenal – Leeds United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Arsenal
- 54%
- Draw
- 29%
- Leeds United
- 17%
| Arsenal | Draw | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.85 | 3.45 | 5.95 |
- Total goals
- 2.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Arsenal
- Model
- 54.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 67.1%
- Probability gap
- −12.9 pp
- Edge
- −25.2%
- Fair odds
- 1.85
- Market odds
- 1.38 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.94
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.6%
- Probability gap
- +8.4 pp
- Edge
- +30.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.45
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.62
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.0%
-
Leeds United
- Model
- 16.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 12.3%
- Probability gap
- +4.5 pp
- Edge
- +26.1%
- Fair odds
- 5.95
- Market odds
- 7.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.0%
Outcomes with value
Arsenal at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Arsenal not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Leeds United to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Leeds United to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Arsenal at most 1 goal
Model 51.6% vs. bookmaker 37.5%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Arsenal
54% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 10th
- Arsenal attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 14th
- Arsenal defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 0.84
- Arsenal v Leeds United
Squad news
Arsenal
9 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arsenal | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.70 · 6th | 1.56 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.81 · 1st | 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.89 · 1st | +0.29 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.55 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 41%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 1:0
- 11.9%
- 2:0
- 11.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arsenal
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Leeds United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.