Monday, 12/10/2026 at 21:00
8d 19h to kick-offCoventry City – Newcastle United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Coventry City
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- Newcastle United
- 25%
| Coventry City | Draw | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.15 | 3.48 | 4.04 |
- Total goals
- 2.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Coventry City
- Model
- 46.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.8%
- Probability gap
- +17.8 pp
- Edge
- +51.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.15
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.26
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.7%
- Probability gap
- +2.0 pp
- Edge
- +0.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.48
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
-
Newcastle United
- Model
- 24.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 44.5%
- Probability gap
- −19.8 pp
- Edge
- −48.0%
- Fair odds
- 4.04
- Market odds
- 2.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
Outcomes with value
Coventry City to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Newcastle United not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Coventry City 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Newcastle United at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Coventry City to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Coventry City to win
Model 46.5% vs. bookmaker 28.8%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Coventry City to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Coventry City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.75 | -0.89 |
| Goals scored minus expected | -3.86 | +3.67 |
| Points won minus expected | -1.33 | +3.92 |
| npxG per shot | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Players the fantasy feed has flagged | 14 | 12 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Coventry City
47% Coventry City to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 20th
- Coventry City attack v Newcastle United defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 19th
- Coventry City defence v Newcastle United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.75 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.17
- Coventry City v Newcastle United
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Coventry City
14 listed-
Oliver Dovin 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Leyton Orient on loan for the rest of the season
-
Aurèle Amenda 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Taiwo Awoniyi 0% chance
Forward · Suspended until 19 Oct
-
Kai Andrews 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Liam Kitching 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Raphael Borges Rodrigues 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Burton Albion on loan for the rest of the season
-
Haji Wright 0% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Luke Woolfenden 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jahnoah Markelo 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai permanently
-
Kaine Kesler-Hayden 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Miguel Brau 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Academico de Viseu on loan for the rest of the season
-
Josh Eccles 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Norman Bassette 0% chance
Forward · Has joined KVC Westerlo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Milan van Ewijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Newcastle United
12 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Coventry City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 19th | (better) 1.07 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.73 · 12th | 1.83 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.75 · 18th | -0.76 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.87 · 19th | 0.82 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.75 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Coventry City clean sheet
- 28%
- Coventry City 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 2:0
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Coventry City sample
- 5 matches
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Coventry City
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Newcastle United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.