Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
8d 15h to kick-offFC Petrolul Ploieşti – Sepsi OSK
Model updated 8 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 46%
- Draw
- 27%
- Sepsi OSK
- 27%
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti | Draw | Sepsi OSK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.18 | 3.76 | 3.64 |
- Total goals
- 3.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Petrolul Ploieşti
46% FC Petrolul Ploieşti to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 12th
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti attack v Sepsi OSK defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 14th
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti defence v Sepsi OSK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.86 vs -0.56
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.42
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti v Sepsi OSK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Petrolul Ploieşti | Sepsi OSK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.34 · 12th | 1.19 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 2.38 · 15th | (better) 1.73 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -1.04 · 14th | (better) -0.54 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 1.06 · 14th | (better) 1.10 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.86 | (better) -0.56 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti clean sheet
- 21%
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- Sepsi OSK sample
- 10 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Sepsi OSK
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.