Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:30
14d 14h to kick-offMalmö FF – BK Häcken
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Malmö FF
- 43%
- Draw
- 27%
- BK Häcken
- 30%
| Malmö FF | Draw | BK Häcken | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.32 | 3.75 | 3.32 |
- Total goals
- 3.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Malmö FF
43% Malmö FF to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Malmö FF attack v BK Häcken defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 7th
- Malmö FF defence v BK Häcken attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.05 vs +1.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.79 – 1.50
- Malmö FF v BK Häcken
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Malmö FF | BK Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.04 · 4th | 1.84 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.50 · 6th | (better) 1.38 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.54 · 4th | +0.46 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.67 · 5th | (better) 1.70 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.05 | +1.01 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Malmö FF clean sheet
- 20%
- Malmö FF 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Malmö FF sample
- 20 matches
- BK Häcken sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Malmö FF
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · BK Häcken
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.