Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 14h to kick-offFK Jablonec – Viktoria Plzeň
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Jablonec
- 38%
- Draw
- 32%
- Viktoria Plzeň
- 30%
| FK Jablonec | Draw | Viktoria Plzeň | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.62 | 3.15 | 3.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Jablonec
38% FK Jablonec to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 2nd
- FK Jablonec attack v Viktoria Plzeň defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 3rd
- FK Jablonec defence v Viktoria Plzeň attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs +0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.16
- FK Jablonec v Viktoria Plzeň
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Jablonec | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.32 · 9th | (better) 1.43 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.01 · 2nd | 1.10 · 5th |
| xGD / match | +0.31 · 5th | (better) +0.32 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.59 · 5th | (better) 1.61 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.70 | +0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FK Jablonec clean sheet
- 29%
- FK Jablonec 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 0:0
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Jablonec sample
- 20 matches
- Viktoria Plzeň sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Jablonec
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Viktoria Plzeň
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.