Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 20:15
12d 4h to kick-offCracovia – Legia Warszawa
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Cracovia
- 39%
- Draw
- 32%
- Legia Warszawa
- 29%
| Cracovia | Draw | Legia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.54 | 3.11 | 3.51 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Cracovia
39% Cracovia to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 5th
- Cracovia attack v Legia Warszawa defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- Cracovia defence v Legia Warszawa attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.02 vs +0.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 1.10
- Cracovia v Legia Warszawa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cracovia | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.53 · 8th | (better) 1.71 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.43 · 7th | (better) 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | +0.10 · 6th | (better) +0.43 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.42 · 7th | (better) 1.66 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.02 | (better) +0.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Cracovia clean sheet
- 30%
- Cracovia 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:0
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cracovia sample
- 20 matches
- Legia Warszawa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cracovia
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Legia Warszawa
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.