Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
33d 14h to kick-offLech Poznań – Zagłębie Lubin
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lech Poznań
- 60%
- Draw
- 25%
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 14%
| Lech Poznań | Draw | Zagłębie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.66 | 3.93 | 6.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lech Poznań
60% Lech Poznań to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 6th
- Lech Poznań attack v Zagłębie Lubin defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 18th
- Lech Poznań defence v Zagłębie Lubin attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs +0.32
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.87 – 0.88
- Lech Poznań v Zagłębie Lubin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lech Poznań | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.35 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.89 · 1st | 1.22 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.18 · 1st | +0.13 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.47 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.48 | +0.32 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Lech Poznań clean sheet
- 38%
- Lech Poznań 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.1%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 11.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lech Poznań
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Zagłębie Lubin
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.