Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:45
14d 15h to kick-offFC Groningen – AFC Ajax
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Groningen
- 29%
- Draw
- 26%
- AFC Ajax
- 46%
| FC Groningen | Draw | AFC Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.49 | 3.90 | 2.19 |
- Total goals
- 3.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AFC Ajax
46% AFC Ajax to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- AFC Ajax attack v FC Groningen defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 9th
- AFC Ajax defence v FC Groningen attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.40 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 1.92
- FC Groningen v AFC Ajax
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.54 · 9th | (better) 2.65 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.93 · 11th | (better) 1.25 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.39 · 10th | (better) +1.40 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.28 · 8th | (better) 2.20 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.34 | (better) +1.40 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- AFC Ajax clean sheet
- 19%
- AFC Ajax 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Groningen sample
- 20 matches
- AFC Ajax sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Groningen
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · AFC Ajax
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.