Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 16h to kick-offNK Istra 1961 – HNK Hajduk Split
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Istra 1961
- 26%
- Draw
- 32%
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 43%
| NK Istra 1961 | Draw | HNK Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.91 | 3.15 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Hajduk Split
43% HNK Hajduk Split to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 7th
- HNK Hajduk Split attack v NK Istra 1961 defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 6th
- HNK Hajduk Split defence v NK Istra 1961 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.03 – 1.37
- NK Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Istra 1961 | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.44 · 5th | (better) 1.52 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.26 · 5th | (better) 0.74 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.19 · 6th | (better) +0.78 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.45 · 6th | (better) 1.93 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.18 | (better) +0.87 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet
- 33%
- HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 0:1
- 10.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Istra 1961 sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Istra 1961
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · HNK Hajduk Split
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.