Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 17h to kick-offNK Lokomotiva Zagreb – NK Varaždin
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 27%
- Draw
- 32%
- NK Varaždin
- 41%
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | NK Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.69 | 3.11 | 2.46 |
- Total goals
- 2.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Varaždin
41% NK Varaždin to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 10th
- NK Varaždin attack v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 7th
- NK Varaždin defence v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.50 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.06 – 1.32
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Varaždin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | NK Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.05 · 7th | (better) 1.41 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 9th | (better) 0.88 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 9th | (better) +0.53 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 9th | (better) 1.80 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- NK Varaždin clean sheet
- 32%
- NK Varaždin 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 0:1
- 9.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- NK Varaždin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Varaždin
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.