Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 18:00
24d 17h to kick-offAS Trenčín – ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AS Trenčín
- 28%
- Draw
- 25%
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 47%
| AS Trenčín | Draw | ŠK Slovan Bratislava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.62 | 3.94 | 2.13 |
- Total goals
- 3.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans ŠK Slovan Bratislava
47% ŠK Slovan Bratislava to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 12th
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava attack v AS Trenčín defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 7th
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava defence v AS Trenčín attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.25 vs -0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.96
- AS Trenčín v ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AS Trenčín | ŠK Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.72 · 6th | (better) 2.40 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.23 · 11th | (better) 1.12 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.50 · 7th | (better) +1.28 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 9th | (better) 2.08 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.26 | (better) +1.25 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava clean sheet
- 19%
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 30%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AS Trenčín sample
- 20 matches
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AS Trenčín
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.