Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
20d 13h to kick-offŠK Slovan Bratislava – Dukla Banská Bystrica
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 67%
- Draw
- 21%
- Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 12%
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava | Draw | Dukla Banská Bystrica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.49 | 4.80 | 8.37 |
- Total goals
- 3.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans ŠK Slovan Bratislava
67% ŠK Slovan Bratislava to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 9th
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava attack v Dukla Banská Bystrica defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 11th
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava defence v Dukla Banská Bystrica attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.25 vs -1.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.30 – 0.98
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava v Dukla Banská Bystrica
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | ŠK Slovan Bratislava | Dukla Banská Bystrica |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.40 · 2nd | 0.97 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.12 · 2nd | 2.09 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.28 · 2nd | -1.11 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.08 · 2nd | 0.79 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.25 | -1.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava clean sheet
- 35%
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals
- 69%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:1
- 10.0%
- 2:0
- 9.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- Dukla Banská Bystrica sample
- 6 matches
- Home xG sample · ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.