Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:30
14d 14h to kick-offDukla Banská Bystrica – FK Železiarne Podbrezová
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 37%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 36%
| Dukla Banská Bystrica | Draw | FK Železiarne Podbrezová | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.73 | 3.61 | 2.80 |
- Total goals
- 3.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Dukla Banská Bystrica to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 6th
- Dukla Banská Bystrica attack v FK Železiarne Podbrezová defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 6th
- Dukla Banská Bystrica defence v FK Železiarne Podbrezová attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.11 vs -0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.56
- Dukla Banská Bystrica v FK Železiarne Podbrezová
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dukla Banská Bystrica | FK Železiarne Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 12th | (better) 1.61 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.09 · 9th | 2.16 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -1.11 · 12th | (better) -0.54 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 0.79 · 12th | (better) 1.11 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.11 | (better) -0.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Dukla Banská Bystrica clean sheet
- 18%
- Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dukla Banská Bystrica sample
- 6 matches
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.