Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:30
14d 13h to kick-offMFK Zemplín Michalovce – FC Košice
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 42%
- Draw
- 26%
- FC Košice
- 31%
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce | Draw | FC Košice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.78 | 3.19 |
- Total goals
- 3.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MFK Zemplín Michalovce
42% MFK Zemplín Michalovce to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 11th
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce attack v FC Košice defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 5th
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce defence v FC Košice attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.73 vs -0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.80 – 1.56
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce v FC Košice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Zemplín Michalovce | FC Košice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.11 · 11th | (better) 1.69 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.84 · 6th | 2.48 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.73 · 10th | -0.79 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.97 · 11th | (better) 1.16 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) -0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce clean sheet
- 18%
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Košice
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.