Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Arsenal – Tottenham Hotspur
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Arsenal
- 55%
- Draw
- 29%
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 16%
| Arsenal | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.81 | 3.42 | 6.43 |
- Total goals
- 2.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Arsenal
55% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 8th
- Arsenal attack v Tottenham Hotspur defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 20th
- Arsenal defence v Tottenham Hotspur attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 0.78
- Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Squad news
Arsenal
11 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Christos Tzolis 75% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Tottenham Hotspur
15 listed-
Dane Scarlett 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Leyton Orient permanently
-
Richarlison 0% chance
Forward · not included in squad.
-
Djed Spence 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Souza 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season
-
Guglielmo Vicario 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cristian Romero 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently
-
Pape Matar Sarr 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mikey Moore 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined FC Köln on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mykhailo Mudryk 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Ashley Phillips 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Middlesbrough permanently
-
Xavi Simons 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dejan Kulusevski 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Wilson Odobert 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Pedro Porro Sauceda 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jan Paul van Hecke 75% chance
Defender · Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arsenal | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.70 · 6th | 1.00 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.81 · 1st | 1.56 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.89 · 1st | -0.56 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.17 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 43%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 1:0
- 12.8%
- 2:0
- 12.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arsenal
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Tottenham Hotspur
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.