Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:00
21d 18h to kick-offAGF – Viborg FF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AGF
- 43%
- Draw
- 29%
- Viborg FF
- 27%
| AGF | Draw | Viborg FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.31 | 3.41 | 3.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AGF
43% AGF to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 4th
- AGF attack v Viborg FF defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 4th
- AGF defence v Viborg FF attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.07 vs +0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 1.23
- AGF v Viborg FF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AGF | Viborg FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.60 · joint 4th | 1.60 · joint 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.56 · 8th | (better) 1.17 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.04 · 6th | (better) +0.43 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.49 · 6th | (better) 1.70 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.07 | (better) +0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- AGF clean sheet
- 26%
- AGF 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AGF sample
- 20 matches
- Viborg FF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AGF
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Viborg FF
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.