Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 14:00
14d 12h to kick-offVästerås SK – Mjällby AIF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Västerås SK
- 46%
- Draw
- 24%
- Mjällby AIF
- 30%
| Västerås SK | Draw | Mjällby AIF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.17 | 4.10 | 3.37 |
- Total goals
- 3.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 76%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Västerås SK
46% Västerås SK to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 13th
- Västerås SK attack v Mjällby AIF defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 11th
- Västerås SK defence v Mjällby AIF attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -1.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.06 – 1.68
- Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Västerås SK | Mjällby AIF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 9th | 1.59 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.91 · 12th | 2.07 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.27 · 9th | -0.48 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.21 · 11th | 1.08 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.42 | -1.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- Västerås SK clean sheet
- 16%
- Västerås SK 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 9.4%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
- 2:2
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Västerås SK sample
- 19 matches
- Mjällby AIF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Västerås SK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Mjällby AIF
- 8 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.