Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:45
6d 17h to kick-offFeyenoord – AZ Alkmaar
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Feyenoord
- 48%
- Draw
- 28%
- AZ Alkmaar
- 24%
| Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.08 | 3.59 | 4.17 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Feyenoord
- Model
- 48.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 51.6%
- Probability gap
- −3.4 pp
- Edge
- −13.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.08
- Market odds
- 1.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.18
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.6%
- Probability gap
- +5.2 pp
- Edge
- +14.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.59
- Market odds
- 4.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.77
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
-
AZ Alkmaar
- Model
- 24.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.8%
- Probability gap
- −1.8 pp
- Edge
- −13.7%
- Fair odds
- 4.17
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.38
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
Outcomes with value
Feyenoord at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Feyenoord not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Feyenoord at most 1 goal
Model 47.0% vs. bookmaker 41.1%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Feyenoord at most 1 goal
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Feyenoord at most 1 goal 47.0%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 41.1%. The gap between the two is 5.9%.
- The defence Feyenoord plays against is AZ Alkmaar's, which the fit rates at 0.78 — below the competition's average of 1.00, so an average side creates less against them than against the field.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | +1.87 | +1.58 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +5.68 | +0.15 |
| Points won minus expected | -0.41 | +2.91 |
| npxG per shot | 0.12 | 0.13 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Feyenoord
48% Feyenoord to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 3rd
- Feyenoord attack v AZ Alkmaar defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Feyenoord defence v AZ Alkmaar attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.87 vs +1.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.72 – 1.20
- Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.76 · 2nd | 2.55 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.80 · 2nd | 0.95 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.96 · 1st | +1.60 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.49 · 1st | 2.30 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.87 | +1.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Feyenoord clean sheet
- 27%
- Feyenoord 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Feyenoord sample
- 20 matches
- AZ Alkmaar sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Feyenoord
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · AZ Alkmaar
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.