Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:30
25d 12h to kick-offAS Trenčín – FC Košice
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AS Trenčín
- 45%
- Draw
- 24%
- FC Košice
- 31%
| AS Trenčín | Draw | FC Košice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.20 | 4.20 | 3.25 |
- Total goals
- 3.90
- Over 2.5 goals
- 77%
- Both teams to score
- 78%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AS Trenčín
45% AS Trenčín to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 11th
- AS Trenčín attack v FC Košice defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 5th
- AS Trenčín defence v FC Košice attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.26 vs -0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.13 – 1.77
- AS Trenčín v FC Košice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AS Trenčín | FC Košice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.72 · 6th | 1.69 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.23 · 11th | 2.48 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.50 · 7th | -0.79 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 9th | (better) 1.16 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.26 | -0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 26% of the model's distribution.
- AS Trenčín clean sheet
- 15%
- AS Trenčín 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 23%
- Both teams to score: no
- 22%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 8.9%
- 1:1
- 8.6%
- 2:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AS Trenčín sample
- 20 matches
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AS Trenčín
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Košice
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.