Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
20d 14h to kick-offMFK Zemplín Michalovce – FK Železiarne Podbrezová
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 38%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 34%
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce | Draw | FK Železiarne Podbrezová | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.60 | 3.59 | 2.96 |
- Total goals
- 3.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
38% MFK Zemplín Michalovce to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 6th
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce attack v FK Železiarne Podbrezová defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 6th
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce defence v FK Železiarne Podbrezová attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.73 vs -0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.51
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce v FK Železiarne Podbrezová
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Zemplín Michalovce | FK Železiarne Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.11 · 11th | (better) 1.61 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.84 · 6th | 2.16 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.73 · 10th | (better) -0.54 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 0.97 · 11th | (better) 1.11 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) -0.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce clean sheet
- 20%
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.