Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFC CSKA 1948 Sofia 4:0 Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia won 4–0. The biggest difference was FC CSKA 1948 Sofia's attack: 2.61 xG against 1.33 projected (+1.28). Botev Plovdiv produced 0.96 xG against 1.36 projected (−0.40).
The model against the result
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 34% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Botev Plovdiv
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia produced 1.28 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 15
- On target
- 9
- 5
- Inside the box
- 8
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.06
Recent form
1.47 xG created 1.28 xGA
- L 1.03 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 0.80 created, 0.88 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 1.35 created, 1.71 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 2.62 created, 0.88 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 1.96 created, 2.43 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.03 created, 1.29 conceded against CSKA Sofia
1.37 xG created 1.24 xGA
- L 0.77 created, 0.54 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 1.72 created, 0.66 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 0.82 created, 3.71 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- W 1.05 created, 0.87 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W 1.53 created, 1.08 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 2.35 created, 0.58 conceded against Slavia Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv to win | 3.70 | +31.4% | Lost |
| Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals | 2.75 | +11.4% | Lost |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +11.1% | Lost |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia not to score | 4.50 | +6.3% | Lost |
| Botev Plovdiv to score | 1.36 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +3.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +1.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 34.1% | 47.5% | −13.4 pp | 2.93 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.4% | +3.0 pp | 3.29 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 35.5% | 25.2% | +10.4 pp | 2.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to score | 76.4% | 79.2% | −2.8 pp | 1.31 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia not to score | 23.6% | 20.8% | +2.8 pp | 4.23 |
| Botev Plovdiv to score | 77.2% | 68.7% | +8.4 pp | 1.30 |
| Botev Plovdiv not to score | 22.8% | 31.3% | −8.4 pp | 4.38 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 55.7% | +4.9 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.3% | 44.3% | −4.9 pp | 2.54 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2+ goals | 39.4% | 50.0% | −10.6 pp | 2.54 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia at most 1 goal | 60.6% | 50.0% | +10.6 pp | 1.65 |
| Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals | 40.5% | 33.7% | +6.8 pp | 2.47 |
| Botev Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 59.5% | 66.3% | −6.8 pp | 1.68 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | 75.0% | +4.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.7% | 25.0% | −4.3 pp | 4.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 52.6% | −0.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 47.4% | +0.7 pp | 2.08 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.