xgEdge

Expected goals

Burnley expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Premier League · after 38 matches · updated 1 Oct

Burnley's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Burnley xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.85 xG per match
#20/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Manchester City 1.87
#2 Chelsea 1.75
#3 Arsenal 1.71
#4 Manchester United 1.70
#5 Bournemouth 1.64
#6 Brentford 1.59
#7 Liverpool 1.58
#8 Crystal Palace 1.53
#9 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.51
#10 Newcastle United 1.49
#11 Leeds United 1.43
#12 Fulham 1.27
#13 Aston Villa 1.26
#14 West Ham United 1.21
#15 Everton 1.20
#16 Nottingham Forest 1.20
#17 Tottenham Hotspur 1.08
#18 Sunderland 1.01
#19 Wolverhampton 0.94
#20 Burnley 0.85
League avg
1.39
Total
32.15 38 matches
Defence
1.99 xGA per match
#20/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.74
#2 Manchester City 1.16
#3 Liverpool 1.26
#4 Manchester United 1.27
#5 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.30
#6 Newcastle United 1.34
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 1.35
#8 Chelsea 1.38
#9 Fulham 1.38
#10 Crystal Palace 1.38
#11 Sunderland 1.41
#12 Brentford 1.42
#13 Aston Villa 1.44
#14 Everton 1.46
#15 Leeds United 1.47
#16 Bournemouth 1.47
#17 Nottingham Forest 1.48
#18 Wolverhampton 1.53
#19 West Ham United 1.57
#20 Burnley 1.99
League avg
1.39
Total
75.57 38 matches
xG difference
-1.14 xGD per match
#20/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.97
#2 Manchester City +0.71
#3 Manchester United +0.43
#4 Chelsea +0.38
#5 Liverpool +0.33
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.21
#7 Bournemouth +0.17
#8 Brentford +0.17
#9 Newcastle United +0.15
#10 Crystal Palace +0.14
#11 Leeds United -0.04
#12 Fulham -0.11
#13 Aston Villa -0.19
#14 Everton -0.26
#15 Tottenham Hotspur -0.27
#16 Nottingham Forest -0.28
#17 West Ham United -0.37
#18 Sunderland -0.40
#19 Wolverhampton -0.60
#20 Burnley -1.14
League avg
0.00
Total
-43.42 38 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.65 xPts per match
#20/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.04
#2 Manchester City 1.86
#3 Manchester United 1.62
#4 Liverpool 1.60
#5 Chelsea 1.57
#6 Bournemouth 1.52
#7 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.51
#8 Brentford 1.49
#9 Newcastle United 1.47
#10 Crystal Palace 1.46
#11 Leeds United 1.42
#12 Fulham 1.29
#13 Aston Villa 1.25
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 1.22
#15 Nottingham Forest 1.20
#16 Everton 1.18
#17 West Ham United 1.14
#18 Sunderland 1.09
#19 Wolverhampton 1.00
#20 Burnley 0.65
League avg
1.38
Total
24.66 vs 22 actual pts

What the xG says

Burnley's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier League. They rank #20 for xG difference at -1.14 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume and low chance quality. Their 38 goals are 5.85 above 32.15 xG, while 22 points are 2.66 below 24.66 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.99 xG from penalties
38 32.15 +5.85 scored 5.85 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
75 75.57 -0.57 conceded 0.57 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
22 24.66 -2.66 2.66 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Burnley are 5.85 goals above their xG after 38 matches. The gap was widest at +8.42, against Brentford on Sat 28/02.

Goals
38
xG
32.15
Gap
+5.85
Sat 16/08 Sat 23/08 Sat 30/08 Sun 14/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Sun 05/10 Sat 18/10 Sun 26/10 Sat 01/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sat 29/11 Wed 03/12 Sat 06/12 Sat 13/12 Sat 20/12 Sat 27/12 Tue 30/12 Sat 03/01 Wed 07/01 Sat 17/01 Sat 24/01 Mon 02/02 Sat 07/02 Wed 11/02 Sat 21/02 Sat 28/02 Tue 03/03 Sat 14/03 Sat 21/03 Sat 11/04 Sun 19/04 Wed 22/04 Fri 01/05 Sun 10/05 Mon 18/05 Sun 24/05 -1 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 -0.94 +0.06 +0.86 +0.73 +0.88 +1.47 +2.07 +3.62 +5.19 +4.77 +5.71 +5.27 +5.32 +4.37 +3.76 +3.30 +3.92 +2.51 +2.42 +2.12 +3.88 +4.48 +5.04 +4.98 +3.70 +6.17 +6.39 +8.42 +7.63 +6.49 +6.25 +5.37 +6.01 +5.38 +5.81 +6.02 +5.83 +5.85 -0.94 +1.00 +0.80 -0.13 +0.15 +0.59 +0.60 +1.55 +1.57 -0.42 +0.94 -0.44 +0.05 -0.95 -0.61 -0.46 +0.62 -1.41 -0.09 -0.30 +1.76 +0.60 +0.56 -0.06 -1.28 +2.47 +0.22 +2.03 -0.79 -1.14 -0.24 -0.88 +0.64 -0.63 +0.43 +0.21 -0.19 +0.02 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Burnley: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 16/08 Tottenham Hotspur 0 0.94 -0.94 -0.94
Sat 23/08 Sunderland 2 1.00 +1.00 +0.06
Sat 30/08 Manchester United 2 1.20 +0.80 +0.86
Sun 14/09 Liverpool 0 0.13 -0.13 +0.73
Sat 20/09 Nottingham Forest 1 0.85 +0.15 +0.88
Sat 27/09 Manchester City 1 0.41 +0.59 +1.47
Sun 05/10 Aston Villa 1 0.40 +0.60 +2.07
Sat 18/10 Leeds United 2 0.45 +1.55 +3.62
Sun 26/10 Wolverhampton 3 1.43 +1.57 +5.19
Sat 01/11 Arsenal 0 0.42 -0.42 +4.77
Sat 08/11 West Ham United 2 1.06 +0.94 +5.71
Sat 22/11 Chelsea 0 0.44 -0.44 +5.27
Sat 29/11 Brentford 1 0.95 +0.05 +5.32
Wed 03/12 Crystal Palace 0 0.95 -0.95 +4.37
Sat 06/12 Newcastle United 1 1.61 -0.61 +3.76
Sat 13/12 Fulham 2 2.46 -0.46 +3.30
Sat 20/12 Bournemouth 1 0.38 +0.62 +3.92
Sat 27/12 Everton 0 1.41 -1.41 +2.51
Tue 30/12 Newcastle United 1 1.09 -0.09 +2.42
Sat 03/01 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0.30 -0.30 +2.12
Wed 07/01 Manchester United 2 0.24 +1.76 +3.88
Sat 17/01 Liverpool 1 0.40 +0.60 +4.48
Sat 24/01 Tottenham Hotspur 2 1.44 +0.56 +5.04
Mon 02/02 Sunderland 0 0.06 -0.06 +4.98
Sat 07/02 West Ham United 0 1.28 -1.28 +3.70
Wed 11/02 Crystal Palace 3 0.53 +2.47 +6.17
Sat 21/02 Chelsea 1 0.78 +0.22 +6.39
Sat 28/02 Brentford 3 0.97 +2.03 +8.42
Tue 03/03 Everton 0 0.79 -0.79 +7.63
Sat 14/03 Bournemouth 0 1.14 -1.14 +6.49
Sat 21/03 Fulham 1 1.24 -0.24 +6.25
Sat 11/04 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0.88 -0.88 +5.37
Sun 19/04 Nottingham Forest 1 0.36 +0.64 +6.01
Wed 22/04 Manchester City 0 0.63 -0.63 +5.38
Fri 01/05 Leeds United 1 0.57 +0.43 +5.81
Sun 10/05 Aston Villa 2 1.79 +0.21 +6.02
Mon 18/05 Arsenal 0 0.19 -0.19 +5.83
Sun 24/05 Wolverhampton 1 0.98 +0.02 +5.85

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Burnley xG trend

Current form -0.87 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 38 matches. The worst was against Manchester City on Wed 22/04 (-2.61).

npxG · last 6
0.76
npxGA · last 6
1.63
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.38 Sat 16/08 +0.23 Sat 23/08 -1.50 Sat 30/08 -1.72 Sun 14/09 -0.20 Sat 20/09 -1.61 Sat 27/09 -0.75 Sun 05/10 -2.18 Sat 18/10 -0.09 Sun 26/10 -2.07 Sat 01/11 -2.07 Sat 08/11 -1.31 Sat 22/11 -2.12 Sat 29/11 +0.28 Wed 03/12 -0.17 Sat 06/12 +0.53 Sat 13/12 -1.03 Sat 20/12 +0.63 Sat 27/12 -1.97 Tue 30/12 -1.17 Sat 03/01 -2.32 Wed 07/01 -1.99 Sat 17/01 -0.70 Sat 24/01 -1.36 Mon 02/02 +0.26 Sat 07/02 -1.39 Wed 11/02 -1.10 Sat 21/02 -1.18 Sat 28/02 -0.26 Tue 03/03 -1.49 Sat 14/03 -1.23 Sat 21/03 -1.00 Sat 11/04 -0.84 Sun 19/04 -2.61 Wed 22/04 -1.13 Fri 01/05 +0.37 Sun 10/05 -0.82 Mon 18/05 -0.20 Sun 24/05 -1.02 season avg
Burnley: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 16/08 Tottenham Hotspur 0.94 2.32 -1.38 -1.38
Sat 23/08 Sunderland 1.00 0.77 +0.23 -0.58
Sat 30/08 Manchester United 1.25 2.75 -1.50 -0.88
Sun 14/09 Liverpool 0.14 1.86 -1.72 -1.09
Sat 20/09 Nottingham Forest 0.90 1.10 -0.20 -0.91
Sat 27/09 Manchester City 0.42 2.03 -1.61 -1.03
Sun 05/10 Aston Villa 0.41 1.16 -0.75 -0.99
Sat 18/10 Leeds United 0.45 2.63 -2.18 -1.14
Sun 26/10 Wolverhampton 1.40 1.49 -0.09 -1.02
Sat 01/11 Arsenal 0.35 2.42 -2.07 -1.13
Sat 08/11 West Ham United 1.06 3.13 -2.07 -1.21
Sat 22/11 Chelsea 0.41 1.72 -1.31 -1.22
Sat 29/11 Brentford 0.16 2.28 -2.12 -1.29
Wed 03/12 Crystal Palace 0.95 0.67 +0.28 -1.18
Sat 06/12 Newcastle United 0.81 0.98 -0.17 -1.11
Sat 13/12 Fulham 2.49 1.96 +0.53 -1.01
Sat 20/12 Bournemouth 0.38 1.41 -1.03 -1.01
Sat 27/12 Everton 1.41 0.78 +0.63 -0.92
Tue 30/12 Newcastle United 1.10 3.07 -1.97 -0.97
Sat 03/01 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.28 1.45 -1.17 -0.98
Wed 07/01 Manchester United 0.28 2.60 -2.32 -1.05
Sat 17/01 Liverpool 0.40 2.39 -1.99 -1.09
Sat 24/01 Tottenham Hotspur 1.61 2.31 -0.70 -1.07
Mon 02/02 Sunderland 0.16 1.52 -1.36 -1.09
Sat 07/02 West Ham United 1.28 1.02 +0.26 -1.03
Wed 11/02 Crystal Palace 0.51 1.90 -1.39 -1.05
Sat 21/02 Chelsea 0.78 1.88 -1.10 -1.05
Sat 28/02 Brentford 0.97 2.15 -1.18 -1.05
Tue 03/03 Everton 0.79 1.05 -0.26 -1.02
Sat 14/03 Bournemouth 1.39 2.88 -1.49 -1.04
Sat 21/03 Fulham 1.25 2.48 -1.23 -1.05
Sat 11/04 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.90 1.90 -1.00 -1.04
Sun 19/04 Nottingham Forest 0.35 1.19 -0.84 -1.04
Wed 22/04 Manchester City 0.59 3.20 -2.61 -1.08
Fri 01/05 Leeds United 0.53 1.66 -1.13 -1.09
Sun 10/05 Aston Villa 1.79 1.42 +0.37 -1.05
Mon 18/05 Arsenal 0.21 1.03 -0.82 -1.04
Sun 24/05 Wolverhampton 1.06 1.26 -0.20 -1.02

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.82 npxG and 1.84 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 20 in Premier League
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 38 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 20 in Premier League
+0.10 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 38 matches · number 1 hardest of 20

  1. Wolverhampton Home −0.34
  2. Arsenal Away +0.48
  3. Aston Villa Home +0.01
  4. Leeds United Away −0.14
  5. Manchester City Home +0.51
  6. Nottingham Forest Away −0.14
  7. Brighton & Hove Albion Home +0.20
  8. Fulham Away +0.02
  9. Bournemouth Home +0.16
  10. Everton Away −0.20
  11. Brentford Home −0.09
  12. Chelsea Away +0.09
  13. Crystal Palace Away −0.05
  14. West Ham United Home −0.14
  15. Sunderland Away −0.14
  16. Tottenham Hotspur Home +0.03
  17. Liverpool Away +0.21
  18. Manchester United Home +0.28
  19. Brighton & Hove Albion Away +0.20
  20. Newcastle United Home −0.03
  21. Everton Home −0.20
  22. Bournemouth Away +0.16
  23. Fulham Home +0.02
  24. Newcastle United Away −0.03
  25. Crystal Palace Home −0.05
  26. Brentford Away −0.09
  27. Chelsea Home +0.09
  28. West Ham United Away −0.14
  29. Arsenal Home +0.48
  30. Wolverhampton Away −0.34
  31. Leeds United Home −0.14
  32. Aston Villa Away +0.01
  33. Manchester City Away +0.51
  34. Nottingham Forest Home −0.14
  35. Liverpool Home +0.21
  36. Manchester United Away +0.28
  37. Sunderland Home −0.14
  38. Tottenham Hotspur Away +0.03

Last 5

+0.10 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 20

  1. Wolverhampton Home −0.34
  2. Arsenal Away +0.48
  3. Aston Villa Home +0.01
  4. Leeds United Away −0.14
  5. Manchester City Home +0.51

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Burnley shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Burnley take 9.3 shots a match (league 12.5) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #20 in Premier League for volume and #19 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 36% of their npxG (league 29%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.3 shots per match
#20/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Manchester City 15.7
=1 Manchester United 15.7
#3 Liverpool 15.5
#4 Arsenal 14.5
#5 Bournemouth 13.8
#6 Chelsea 13.4
#7 Brighton & Hove Albion 13.0
#8 Newcastle United 12.9
=9 Aston Villa 12.7
=9 Fulham 12.7
#11 Leeds United 12.6
#12 Nottingham Forest 12.5
#13 Crystal Palace 11.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 11.4
#15 Everton 11.0
#16 Brentford 10.7
#17 West Ham United 10.6
#18 Sunderland 10.4
#19 Wolverhampton 9.7
#20 Burnley 9.3
League avg
12.5
Total
355 shots from 38 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#19/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Brentford 0.13
#2 Chelsea 0.12
#3 Crystal Palace 0.12
#4 Manchester City 0.11
#5 Arsenal 0.11
#6 Bournemouth 0.11
#7 West Ham United 0.11
#8 Newcastle United 0.11
#9 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#10 Everton 0.11
#11 Leeds United 0.10
#12 Manchester United 0.10
#13 Aston Villa 0.10
#14 Liverpool 0.10
#15 Tottenham Hotspur 0.10
#16 Sunderland 0.09
#17 Nottingham Forest 0.09
#18 Fulham 0.09
#19 Burnley 0.09
#20 Wolverhampton 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
31.16 npxG from 355 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.7 shots per match
#20/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Arsenal 8.2
#2 Manchester City 9.7
#3 Chelsea 10.9
#4 Liverpool 11.4
#5 Manchester United 11.5
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.7
#7 Crystal Palace 11.7
#8 Fulham 11.8
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 12.3
#10 Newcastle United 12.3
#11 Leeds United 12.5
#12 Bournemouth 12.6
#13 Aston Villa 12.9
=14 Brentford 13.3
=14 Nottingham Forest 13.3
#16 Wolverhampton 13.9
#17 Everton 14.0
#18 Sunderland 14.2
#19 West Ham United 14.9
#20 Burnley 16.7
League avg
12.5
Total
636 shots allowed from 38 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#16/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.10
#2 West Ham United 0.10
#3 Brentford 0.10
#4 Sunderland 0.10
#5 Everton 0.10
#6 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#7 Wolverhampton 0.10
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.10
#9 Newcastle United 0.10
#10 Manchester United 0.10
#11 Liverpool 0.10
#12 Tottenham Hotspur 0.11
#13 Leeds United 0.11
#14 Bournemouth 0.11
#15 Crystal Palace 0.11
#16 Burnley 0.11
#17 Fulham 0.11
#18 Aston Villa 0.11
#19 Manchester City 0.12
#20 Chelsea 0.12
League avg
0.11
Total
69.82 npxGA from 636 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 216 of 355 shots over 38 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 424 of 636 shots allowed over 38 matches

Where the npxG comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 29% set pieces

From 11.1 of 31.1 npxG over 38 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

74% open play · 26% set pieces

League avg 29% set pieces

From 17.9 of 69.6 npxG allowed over 38 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Burnley home and away xG

Burnley per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 19 19
xG / match 0.98 0.72
xGA / match 1.93 2.04
xGD / match -0.96 -1.33
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.82 0.48

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Burnley match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
19
xG / match
0.98
xGA / match
1.93
xGD / match
-0.96
Points
13 of 57
  1. Sun 24/05 Wolverhampton H xG 0.98 xGA 2.09 P xGD -1.11
  2. Sun 10/05 Aston Villa H xG 1.79 xGA 1.44 xGD +0.35
  3. Wed 22/04 Manchester City H Weakest underlying xG 0.63 xGA 3.36 xGD -2.73
  4. Sat 11/04 Brighton & Hove Albion H xG 0.88 xGA 1.93 xGD -1.05
  5. Sat 14/03 Bournemouth H xG 1.14 xGA 2.88 xGD -1.74
  6. Sat 28/02 Brentford H xG 0.97 xGA 1.94 xGD -0.97
  7. Sat 07/02 West Ham United H xG 1.28 xGA 1.02 xGD +0.26
  8. Sat 24/01 Tottenham Hotspur H xG 1.44 xGA 2.30 xGD -0.86
  9. Wed 07/01 Manchester United H xG 0.24 xGA 2.55 xGD -2.31
  10. Tue 30/12 Newcastle United H xG 1.09 xGA 2.31 xGD -1.22
  11. Sat 27/12 Everton H Best underlying xG 1.41 xGA 0.82 xGD +0.59
  12. Sat 13/12 Fulham H xG 2.46 xGA 2.23 xGD +0.23
  13. Wed 03/12 Crystal Palace H xG 0.95 xGA 0.59 xGD +0.36
  14. Sat 22/11 Chelsea H xG 0.44 xGA 1.72 xGD -1.28
  15. Sat 01/11 Arsenal H xG 0.42 xGA 2.42 xGD -2.00
  16. Sat 18/10 Leeds United H Against the chances xG 0.45 xGA 2.63 xGD -2.18
  17. Sat 20/09 Nottingham Forest H xG 0.85 xGA 1.10 xGD -0.25
  18. Sun 14/09 Liverpool H xG 0.13 xGA 2.65 P xGD -2.52
  19. Sat 23/08 Sunderland H xG 1.00 xGA 0.77 xGD +0.23

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.36. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Burnley in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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