Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Chelsea – Liverpool
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Chelsea
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- Liverpool
- 33%
| Chelsea | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.70 | 3.32 | 3.04 |
- Total goals
- 2.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Chelsea to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 3rd
- Chelsea attack v Liverpool defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 5th
- Chelsea defence v Liverpool attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs +0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.41 – 1.33
- Chelsea v Liverpool
Squad news
Chelsea
14 listed-
Robert Lynch Sánchez 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Como on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marc Guiu Paz 0% chance
Forward · Has joined RB Leipzig permanently
-
Dário Essugo 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Trevoh Chalobah 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Como permanently
-
Emmanuel Emegha 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season
-
Filip Jörgensen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mamadou Sarr 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season
-
Moisés Caicedo 50% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Marco Palestra 50% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
-
João Pedro 75% chance
Forward · Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cole Palmer 75% chance
Midfielder · Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Reece James 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Chelsea | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.47 · 11th | (better) 1.67 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.78 · 17th | (better) 1.22 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.31 · 14th | (better) +0.45 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 15th | (better) 1.69 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Chelsea clean sheet
- 24%
- Chelsea 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chelsea sample
- 20 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Chelsea
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Liverpool
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.