xgEdge

Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00

6d 14h to kick-off
Match preview · Premier League

Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunderland 14th in Premier League Home 1.59 projected goals by the model
Brighton & Hove Albion 3rd in Premier League Away 1.46 projected goals by the model

Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00

What the model expects

expected goals
1.59 1.46
Sunderland Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunderland
39%
Draw
28%
Brighton & Hove Albion
33%
The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
Sunderland Draw Brighton & Hove Albion
Fair odds 2.57 3.55 3.04
Total goals
3.05
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams to score
67%
Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.

  • Sunderland

    Model
    39.0%
    Market, margin removed
    32.6%
    Probability gap
    +6.4 pp
    Edge
    +12.1%
    Fair odds
    2.57
    Market odds
    2.88 Bet365
    Price at which a 5% edge begins
    2.69
    Bookmaker margin
    6.7%

  • Draw

    Model
    28.1%
    Market, margin removed
    27.6%
    Probability gap
    +0.6 pp
    Edge
    −4.4%
    Fair odds
    3.55
    Market odds
    3.40 Bet365
    Price at which a 5% edge begins
    3.73
    Bookmaker margin
    6.7%

  • Brighton & Hove Albion

    Model
    32.9%
    Market, margin removed
    39.9%
    Probability gap
    −7.0 pp
    Edge
    −22.7%
    Fair odds
    3.04
    Market odds
    2.35 Bet365
    Price at which a 5% edge begins
    3.19
    Bookmaker margin
    6.7%

Best opportunity

Sunderland 2+ goals

odds · Bet365 2.50 value +21.8%

Model 48.7% vs. bookmaker 37.5%, margin removed.

Markets 6 / 17

Match result

Sunderland to win model 39.0% · book 32.6% (no margin) +12.1% 2.88 fair 2.57
Worth playing

Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.

Draw model 28.1% · book 27.6% (no margin) -4.4% 3.40 fair 3.55
Not worth it
Brighton & Hove Albion to win model 32.9% · book 39.9% (no margin) -22.7% 2.35 fair 3.04
Stay away

Goals

Over 2.5 goals model 60.7% · book 52.6% (no margin) +9.2% 1.80 fair 1.65
Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Over 1.5 goals model 84.6% · book 76.2% (no margin) +5.8% 1.25 fair 1.18
Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

Under 2.5 goals model 39.3% · book 47.4% (no margin) -21.3% 2.00 fair 2.54
Stay away
Under 1.5 goals model 15.4% · book 23.8% (no margin) -38.5% 4.00 fair 6.51
Stay away

Both teams to score

Both teams to score model 66.7% · book 55.7% (no margin) +11.2% 1.67 fair 1.50
Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).

Both teams not to score model 33.3% · book 44.3% (no margin) -30.0% 2.10 fair 3.00
Stay away

Goals by team

Sunderland 2+ goals model 48.7% · book 37.5% (no margin) +21.8% 2.50 fair 2.05
Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Sunderland to score model 82.1% · book 72.3% (no margin) +6.7% 1.30 fair 1.22
Worth playing

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Brighton & Hove Albion to score model 79.4% · book 76.6% (no margin) -3.0% 1.22 fair 1.26
Not worth it
Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal model 55.9% · book 55.7% (no margin) -6.8% 1.67 fair 1.79
Not worth it
Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals model 44.1% · book 44.3% (no margin) -7.4% 2.10 fair 2.27
Not worth it
Brighton & Hove Albion not to score model 20.6% · book 23.4% (no margin) -17.5% 4.00 fair 4.85
Stay away
Sunderland at most 1 goal model 51.3% · book 62.5% (no margin) -23.1% 1.50 fair 1.95
Stay away
Sunderland not to score model 17.9% · book 27.7% (no margin) -39.1% 3.40 fair 5.58
Stay away
Hide the outcomes without value

Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →

The model's case

Why the model leans Sunderland

39% Sunderland to win

Attack
8th vs 12th
Sunderland attack v Brighton & Hove Albion defence
Defence
6th vs 3rd
Sunderland defence v Brighton & Hove Albion attack
Recent xG form
+0.29 vs +0.33
xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals
1.59 – 1.46
Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion
How the model arrived here →

Squad news

From Fantasy Premier League

Sunderland

9 listed
  • Anthony Patterson 0% chance

    Goalkeeper · Has joined Wrexham permanently

  • Arthur Masuaku 0% chance

    Defender · Has joined Konyaspor permanently

  • Jenson Seelt 0% chance

    Defender · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season

  • Leo Fuhr Hjelde 0% chance

    Defender · Has joined KV Mechelen on loan for the rest of the season

  • Simon Adingra 0% chance

    Midfielder · Has joined Ajax on loan for the rest of the season

  • Habib Diarra 0% chance

    Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

  • Romaine Mundle 0% chance

    Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date

  • Brian Brobbey 75% chance

    Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

  • Daniel Ballard 75% chance

    Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

Brighton & Hove Albion

15 listed
  • Jack Hinshelwood 0% chance

    Midfielder · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct

  • Mats Wieffer 0% chance

    Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date

  • Harry Howell 0% chance

    Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season

  • Femi Azeez 0% chance

    Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct

  • Yankuba Minteh 0% chance

    Midfielder · Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov

  • Stefanos Tzimas 0% chance

    Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date

  • Evan Ferguson 0% chance

    Forward · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct

  • Facundo Buonanotte 0% chance

    Midfielder · Has joined Elche on loan for the rest of the season

  • Igor Julio 0% chance

    Defender · Has joined Burnley permanently

  • Tom Watson 0% chance

    Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season

  • Zadok Yohanna 0% chance

    Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct

  • Amario Cozier-Duberry 0% chance

    Midfielder · Has joined Middlesbrough on loan for the rest of the season

  • Mitoma Kaoru 0% chance

    Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct

  • Lewis Dunk 75% chance

    Defender · Neck injury - 75% chance of playing

  • Pascal Struijk 75% chance

    Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading Sunderland Brighton & Hove Albion
xG / match 1.90 · 5th (better) 2.31 · 1st
xGA / match 1.75 · 14th (better) 1.74 · 13th
xGD / match +0.15 · 9th (better) +0.57 · 4th
xPts / match 1.47 · 9th (better) 1.62 · 6th
Last 6 xGD / match +0.29 (better) +0.33

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.

Sunderland clean sheet
21%
Sunderland 2+ goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
39%
Both teams to score: no
33%

Most likely scorelines

1:1
13.3%
2:1
9.9%
1:2
9.1%
Value calculator

Check your bookmaker's price

The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Open the calculator

Model details

Show
Fit window
the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sunderland sample
20 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion sample
20 matches
Home xG sample · Sunderland
2 matches
Away xG sample · Brighton & Hove Albion
2 matches
Computed
Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Odds updated
1 minute ago

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

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