Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:30
6d 16h to kick-offMjällby AIF – Degerfors IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Mjällby AIF
- 39%
- Draw
- 27%
- Degerfors IF
- 34%
| Mjällby AIF | Draw | Degerfors IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.54 | 3.76 | 2.94 |
- Total goals
- 3.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Mjällby AIF
- Model
- 39.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 49.0%
- Probability gap
- −9.6 pp
- Edge
- −25.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.54
- Market odds
- 1.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.67
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.6%
- Probability gap
- +0.0 pp
- Edge
- −6.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.76
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.94
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Degerfors IF
- Model
- 34.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.5%
- Probability gap
- +9.5 pp
- Edge
- +29.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.94
- Market odds
- 3.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
Outcomes with value
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Degerfors IF to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Degerfors IF to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
Model 49.4% vs. bookmaker 31.3%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Mjällby AIF
39% Mjällby AIF to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 10th
- Mjällby AIF attack v Degerfors IF defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 15th
- Mjällby AIF defence v Degerfors IF attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.22 vs -0.06
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 1.61
- Mjällby AIF v Degerfors IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Mjällby AIF | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.59 · 10th | 1.26 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 2.07 · 13th | (better) 1.76 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.48 · 12th | -0.51 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 1.08 · 13th | (better) 1.09 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.22 | (better) -0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Mjällby AIF clean sheet
- 18%
- Mjällby AIF 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Mjällby AIF sample
- 20 matches
- Degerfors IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Mjällby AIF
- 8 matches
- Away xG sample · Degerfors IF
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.