Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:30
4d 0h to kick-offPogoń Szczecin – MKS Korona Kielce
Model updated 7 October, 15:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 29%
| Pogoń Szczecin | Draw | MKS Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.41 | 3.36 | 3.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market prices are broadly in line with the model.
-
Pogoń Szczecin
- Model
- 41.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.2%
- Probability gap
- −0.7 pp
- Edge
- −10.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.41
- Market odds
- 2.15 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.53
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.5%
- Probability gap
- +2.3 pp
- Edge
- −1.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.36
- Market odds
- 3.30 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.53
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
-
MKS Korona Kielce
- Model
- 28.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.3%
- Probability gap
- −1.6 pp
- Edge
- −14.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.49
- Market odds
- 3.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.66
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
Outcomes with value
Not one rated outcome carries value.
Match result
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Pogoń Szczecin
42% Pogoń Szczecin to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 12th
- Pogoń Szczecin attack v MKS Korona Kielce defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 14th
- Pogoń Szczecin defence v MKS Korona Kielce attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.50 vs -0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.51 – 1.24
- Pogoń Szczecin v MKS Korona Kielce
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Pogoń Szczecin | MKS Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.48 · 11th | 1.40 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.38 · 6th | 1.48 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.10 · 7th | -0.07 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 5th | 1.27 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.50 | -0.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet
- 26%
- Pogoń Szczecin 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Pogoń Szczecin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · MKS Korona Kielce
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 15:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.