Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:30
26d 2h to kick-offFC Arouca – CD Nacional
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Arouca
- 47%
- Draw
- 30%
- CD Nacional
- 23%
| FC Arouca | Draw | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.13 | 3.37 | 4.28 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Arouca
47% FC Arouca to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 17th
- FC Arouca attack v CD Nacional defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 11th
- FC Arouca defence v CD Nacional attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs -0.81
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.08
- FC Arouca v CD Nacional
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Arouca | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.24 · 10th | 1.15 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.38 · 10th | 1.87 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.14 · 8th | -0.72 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.37 · 8th | 1.06 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.12 | -0.81 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC Arouca clean sheet
- 31%
- FC Arouca 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Arouca sample
- 20 matches
- CD Nacional sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Arouca
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · CD Nacional
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.