Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) results 2026/2027

Every Parva Liga (Bulgaria) match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

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Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 11 of 21 matches (52%). The probabilities implied about 10 (47%). Brier score 0.56 (reference 0.69; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

2 matches

16:45

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1

CSKA Sofia 1

xG 0.62 – 1.27 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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14:15

FK Spartak Varna 0

Lokomotiv Sofia 1

xG 2.19 – 1.01 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
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Sunday, 13/09/2026

1 match

16:45

Botev Vratsa 0

Levski Sofia 0

xG 0.79 – 2.01 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Saturday, 05/09/2026

1 match

18:00

FK Spartak Varna 1

CSKA Sofia 1

xG 0.79 – 3.50 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Sunday, 30/08/2026

1 match

18:00

Botev Plovdiv 1

Levski Sofia 3

xG 1.72 – 0.66 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 23/08/2026

1 match

18:00

FK Septemvri Sofia 1

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0

xG 0.49 – 1.03 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 31/07/2026

1 match

20:15

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2

Arda Kardzhali 1

xG 1.05 – 1.84 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Monday, 27/07/2026

1 match

20:15

CSKA Sofia 3

Botev Plovdiv 2

xG 1.54 – 2.39 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Tuesday, 21/07/2026

1 match

20:30

Botev Plovdiv 1

Lokomotiv Sofia 1

xG 2.29 – 0.53 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Monday, 20/07/2026

1 match

18:15

Slavia Sofia 0

CSKA Sofia 0

xG 0.37 – 1.53 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 18/07/2026

2 matches

20:15

Ludogorets 1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0

xG 0.96 – 1.91 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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18:00

FK Septemvri Sofia 1

Arda Kardzhali 1

xG 1.39 – 0.66 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 17/07/2026

1 match

18:00

FK Spartak Varna 2

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2

xG 0.79 – 2.80 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.