Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 14h to kick-offMotor Lublin – Zagłębie Lubin
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Motor Lublin
- 40%
- Draw
- 31%
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 29%
| Motor Lublin | Draw | Zagłębie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.48 | 3.22 | 3.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Motor Lublin
40% Motor Lublin to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 6th
- Motor Lublin attack v Zagłębie Lubin defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 18th
- Motor Lublin defence v Zagłębie Lubin attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.06 vs +0.32
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.16
- Motor Lublin v Zagłębie Lubin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Motor Lublin | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.39 · 16th | 1.35 · 17th |
| xGA / match | 1.53 · 10th | (better) 1.22 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.14 · 13th | (better) +0.13 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.26 · 13th | (better) 1.47 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.06 | (better) +0.32 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Motor Lublin clean sheet
- 28%
- Motor Lublin 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:0
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Motor Lublin sample
- 20 matches
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Motor Lublin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Zagłębie Lubin
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.