Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
26d 12h to kick-offZagłębie Lubin – MKS Korona Kielce
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 30%
| Zagłębie Lubin | Draw | MKS Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.56 | 3.20 | 3.38 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Zagłębie Lubin
39% Zagłębie Lubin to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 12th
- Zagłębie Lubin attack v MKS Korona Kielce defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 14th
- Zagłębie Lubin defence v MKS Korona Kielce attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.32 vs -0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.17
- Zagłębie Lubin v MKS Korona Kielce
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zagłębie Lubin | MKS Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 17th | (better) 1.40 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.22 · 4th | 1.48 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.13 · 5th | -0.07 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.47 · 6th | 1.27 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.32 | -0.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Zagłębie Lubin clean sheet
- 28%
- Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zagłębie Lubin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · MKS Korona Kielce
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.