xgEdge

Expected goals

NAC Breda expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Eredivisie · after 34 matches · updated 4 Oct

NAC Breda's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NAC Breda xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.19 xG per match
#15/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.09
#2 Feyenoord 1.95
#3 FC Twente 1.90
#4 AZ Alkmaar 1.84
#5 NEC Nijmegen 1.83
#6 FC Groningen 1.67
#7 SC Heerenveen 1.66
#8 AFC Ajax 1.58
#9 SC Telstar 1.50
#10 FC Utrecht 1.47
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.33
#12 Excelsior 1.32
#13 Go Ahead Eagles 1.26
#14 Fortuna Sittard 1.21
#15 NAC Breda 1.19
#16 PEC Zwolle 1.18
#17 Heracles Almelo 1.14
#18 FC Volendam 1.06
League avg
1.51
Total
40.49 34 matches
Defence
1.52 xGA per match
#11/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 1.12
#2 Feyenoord 1.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 1.17
#4 AZ Alkmaar 1.28
#5 AFC Ajax 1.29
#6 FC Utrecht 1.32
#7 FC Groningen 1.37
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.42
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.47
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 1.50
#11 NAC Breda 1.52
#12 FC Volendam 1.70
#13 PEC Zwolle 1.75
#14 Excelsior 1.75
#15 Fortuna Sittard 1.77
#16 SC Telstar 1.77
#17 Go Ahead Eagles 1.89
#18 Heracles Almelo 1.97
League avg
1.51
Total
51.64 34 matches
xG difference
-0.33 xGD per match
#12/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven +0.92
#2 Feyenoord +0.82
#3 FC Twente +0.78
#4 AZ Alkmaar +0.56
#5 NEC Nijmegen +0.41
#6 FC Groningen +0.30
#7 AFC Ajax +0.29
#8 SC Heerenveen +0.18
#9 FC Utrecht +0.16
#10 Sparta Rotterdam -0.17
#11 SC Telstar -0.27
#12 NAC Breda -0.33
#13 Excelsior -0.43
#14 Fortuna Sittard -0.56
#15 PEC Zwolle -0.57
#16 Go Ahead Eagles -0.63
#17 FC Volendam -0.64
#18 Heracles Almelo -0.82
League avg
0.00
Total
-11.15 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.18 xPts per match
#12/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 1.97
#2 FC Twente 1.87
#3 Feyenoord 1.86
#4 AZ Alkmaar 1.74
#5 NEC Nijmegen 1.61
#6 FC Groningen 1.57
#7 FC Utrecht 1.53
#8 SC Heerenveen 1.53
#9 AFC Ajax 1.52
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 1.30
#11 SC Telstar 1.22
#12 NAC Breda 1.18
#13 Excelsior 1.08
#14 Go Ahead Eagles 1.08
#15 Fortuna Sittard 1.03
#16 PEC Zwolle 1.02
#17 FC Volendam 0.97
#18 Heracles Almelo 0.88
League avg
1.39
Total
40.10 vs 29 actual pts

What the xG says

NAC Breda's underlying numbers sit close to the Eredivisie average. They rank #12 for xG difference at -0.33 per match, from about average shot volume at the league's lowest chance quality. Their 35 goals are 5.49 below 40.49 xG, while 29 points are 11.10 below 40.10 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 3.39 xG from penalties
35 40.49 -5.49 scored 5.49 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
58 51.64 +6.36 conceded 6.36 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
29 40.10 -11.10 11.10 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NAC Breda are 5.49 goals below their xG after 34 matches. The gap was widest at -6.55, against FC Utrecht on Sat 02/05.

Goals
35
xG
40.49
Gap
-5.49
Sat 09/08 Sun 17/08 Sun 24/08 Sun 31/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Fri 03/10 Sat 18/10 Fri 24/10 Sat 01/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sat 29/11 Sun 07/12 Sun 14/12 Sat 20/12 Sat 10/01 Sat 17/01 Sat 24/01 Fri 30/01 Fri 06/02 Sat 14/02 Sat 21/02 Fri 27/02 Sun 08/03 Sun 15/03 Sat 21/03 Sun 05/04 Sun 12/04 Sat 25/04 Sat 02/05 Mon 11/05 Sun 17/05 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.28 -0.29 -0.90 -2.86 -1.60 -1.88 -2.45 -2.14 -2.68 -1.06 -0.65 -0.29 -1.50 -3.17 -4.59 -4.79 -5.52 -6.34 -4.16 -3.66 -2.92 -4.00 -4.26 -4.65 -5.01 -3.04 -4.17 -4.21 -4.72 -4.47 -6.10 -6.55 -6.41 -5.49 -0.28 -0.01 -0.61 -1.96 +1.26 -0.28 -0.57 +0.31 -0.54 +1.62 +0.41 +0.36 -1.21 -1.67 -1.42 -0.20 -0.73 -0.82 +2.18 +0.50 +0.74 -1.08 -0.26 -0.39 -0.36 +1.97 -1.13 -0.04 -0.51 +0.25 -1.63 -0.45 +0.14 +0.92 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NAC Breda: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 09/08 Feyenoord 0 0.28 -0.28 -0.28
Sun 17/08 Fortuna Sittard 2 2.01 -0.01 -0.29
Sun 24/08 NEC Nijmegen 0 0.61 -0.61 -0.90
Sun 31/08 AZ Alkmaar 0 1.96 -1.96 -2.86
Sat 13/09 FC Twente 2 0.74 +1.26 -1.60
Sat 20/09 Heracles Almelo 2 2.28 -0.28 -1.88
Sat 27/09 AFC Ajax 1 1.57 -0.57 -2.45
Fri 03/10 FC Groningen 1 0.69 +0.31 -2.14
Sat 18/10 PEC Zwolle 2 2.54 -0.54 -2.68
Fri 24/10 SC Heerenveen 3 1.38 +1.62 -1.06
Sat 01/11 Go Ahead Eagles 1 0.59 +0.41 -0.65
Sat 08/11 FC Volendam 1 0.64 +0.36 -0.29
Sat 22/11 PSV Eindhoven 0 1.21 -1.21 -1.50
Sat 29/11 Excelsior 0 1.67 -1.67 -3.17
Sun 07/12 Sparta Rotterdam 0 1.42 -1.42 -4.59
Sun 14/12 FC Utrecht 1 1.20 -0.20 -4.79
Sat 20/12 SC Telstar 0 0.73 -0.73 -5.52
Sat 10/01 FC Groningen 0 0.82 -0.82 -6.34
Sat 17/01 NEC Nijmegen 3 0.82 +2.18 -4.16
Sat 24/01 PSV Eindhoven 2 1.50 +0.50 -3.66
Fri 30/01 FC Twente 2 1.26 +0.74 -2.92
Fri 06/02 Excelsior 0 1.08 -1.08 -4.00
Sat 14/02 Heracles Almelo 1 1.26 -0.26 -4.26
Sat 21/02 FC Volendam 1 1.39 -0.39 -4.65
Fri 27/02 SC Telstar 0 0.36 -0.36 -5.01
Sun 08/03 Feyenoord 3 1.03 +1.97 -3.04
Sun 15/03 Go Ahead Eagles 0 1.13 -1.13 -4.17
Sat 21/03 PEC Zwolle 1 1.04 -0.04 -4.21
Sun 05/04 Sparta Rotterdam 0 0.51 -0.51 -4.72
Sun 12/04 Fortuna Sittard 1 0.75 +0.25 -4.47
Sat 25/04 AFC Ajax 0 1.63 -1.63 -6.10
Sat 02/05 FC Utrecht 0 0.45 -0.45 -6.55
Mon 11/05 SC Heerenveen 2 1.86 +0.14 -6.41
Sun 17/05 AZ Alkmaar 3 2.08 +0.92 -5.49

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

NAC Breda xG trend

Current form -0.59 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 12 of 34 matches. The worst was against NEC Nijmegen on Sun 24/08 (-2.96).

npxG · last 6
1.05
npxGA · last 6
1.64
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -2.19 Sat 09/08 +1.33 Sun 17/08 -2.96 Sun 24/08 -1.49 Sun 31/08 -0.80 Sat 13/09 +1.51 Sat 20/09 -1.23 Sat 27/09 -0.74 Fri 03/10 +0.29 Sat 18/10 -0.43 Fri 24/10 -0.06 Sat 01/11 -1.27 Sat 08/11 +0.64 Sat 22/11 +1.51 Sat 29/11 -0.85 Sun 07/12 +0.54 Sun 14/12 -1.10 Sat 20/12 -0.48 Sat 10/01 -0.36 Sat 17/01 +0.03 Sat 24/01 -0.34 Fri 30/01 +0.32 Fri 06/02 -0.74 Sat 14/02 +0.86 Sat 21/02 -0.90 Fri 27/02 -0.61 Sun 08/03 -0.36 Sun 15/03 +0.22 Sat 21/03 -0.03 Sun 05/04 -0.83 Sun 12/04 -0.99 Sat 25/04 -2.40 Sat 02/05 +0.07 Mon 11/05 +0.63 Sun 17/05 -0.39 season avg
NAC Breda: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 09/08 Feyenoord 0.25 2.44 -2.19 -2.19
Sun 17/08 Fortuna Sittard 2.06 0.73 +1.33 -0.43
Sun 24/08 NEC Nijmegen 0.45 3.41 -2.96 -1.27
Sun 31/08 AZ Alkmaar 1.33 2.82 -1.49 -1.33
Sat 13/09 FC Twente 0.62 1.42 -0.80 -1.22
Sat 20/09 Heracles Almelo 2.60 1.09 +1.51 -0.77
Sat 27/09 AFC Ajax 0.77 2.00 -1.23 -0.83
Fri 03/10 FC Groningen 0.72 1.46 -0.74 -0.82
Sat 18/10 PEC Zwolle 1.76 1.47 +0.29 -0.70
Fri 24/10 SC Heerenveen 1.38 1.81 -0.43 -0.67
Sat 01/11 Go Ahead Eagles 0.62 0.68 -0.06 -0.62
Sat 08/11 FC Volendam 0.64 1.91 -1.27 -0.67
Sat 22/11 PSV Eindhoven 1.21 0.57 +0.64 -0.57
Sat 29/11 Excelsior 1.67 0.16 +1.51 -0.42
Sun 07/12 Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 2.27 -0.85 -0.45
Sun 14/12 FC Utrecht 1.21 0.67 +0.54 -0.39
Sat 20/12 SC Telstar 0.73 1.83 -1.10 -0.43
Sat 10/01 FC Groningen 0.82 1.30 -0.48 -0.43
Sat 17/01 NEC Nijmegen 0.83 1.19 -0.36 -0.43
Sat 24/01 PSV Eindhoven 1.82 1.79 +0.03 -0.41
Fri 30/01 FC Twente 1.29 1.63 -0.34 -0.40
Fri 06/02 Excelsior 1.18 0.86 +0.32 -0.37
Sat 14/02 Heracles Almelo 0.47 1.21 -0.74 -0.39
Sat 21/02 FC Volendam 1.38 0.52 +0.86 -0.33
Fri 27/02 SC Telstar 0.36 1.26 -0.90 -0.36
Sun 08/03 Feyenoord 1.03 1.64 -0.61 -0.37
Sun 15/03 Go Ahead Eagles 1.13 1.49 -0.36 -0.37
Sat 21/03 PEC Zwolle 1.04 0.82 +0.22 -0.35
Sun 05/04 Sparta Rotterdam 0.51 0.54 -0.03 -0.33
Sun 12/04 Fortuna Sittard 0.76 1.59 -0.83 -0.35
Sat 25/04 AFC Ajax 1.44 2.43 -0.99 -0.37
Sat 02/05 FC Utrecht 0.45 2.85 -2.40 -0.43
Mon 11/05 SC Heerenveen 1.07 1.00 +0.07 -0.42
Sun 17/05 AZ Alkmaar 2.08 1.45 +0.63 -0.39

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.09 npxG and 1.48 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 9 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 34 league matches
Last 5
number 5 hardest of 17 in Eredivisie
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

0.00 xG vs league average · over 34 matches · tied number 9 hardest of 18

  1. AZ Alkmaar Away +0.29
  2. SC Heerenveen Home −0.15
  3. FC Utrecht Away +0.23
  4. AFC Ajax Home +0.32
  5. Fortuna Sittard Away −0.35
  6. Sparta Rotterdam Home −0.20
  7. PEC Zwolle Away −0.45
  8. Go Ahead Eagles Away −0.60
  9. Feyenoord Home +0.43
  10. SC Telstar Away −0.20
  11. FC Volendam Home −0.41
  12. Heracles Almelo Away −0.49
  13. Excelsior Home −0.06
  14. FC Twente Home +0.52
  15. PSV Eindhoven Away +0.52
  16. NEC Nijmegen Home +0.53
  17. FC Groningen Away +0.14
  18. SC Telstar Home −0.20
  19. FC Utrecht Home +0.23
  20. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.20
  21. Excelsior Away −0.06
  22. PSV Eindhoven Home +0.52
  23. FC Volendam Away −0.41
  24. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.60
  25. SC Heerenveen Away −0.15
  26. PEC Zwolle Home −0.45
  27. FC Groningen Home +0.14
  28. AFC Ajax Away +0.32
  29. Heracles Almelo Home −0.49
  30. FC Twente Away +0.52
  31. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.29
  32. NEC Nijmegen Away +0.53
  33. Fortuna Sittard Home −0.35
  34. Feyenoord Away +0.43

Last 5

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 5 hardest of 17

  1. AZ Alkmaar Away +0.29
  2. SC Heerenveen Home −0.15
  3. FC Utrecht Away +0.23
  4. AFC Ajax Home +0.32
  5. Fortuna Sittard Away −0.35

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NAC Breda shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. NAC Breda take 14.1 shots a match (league 14.1) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #10 in Eredivisie for volume and #18 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 65%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.1 shots per match
#10/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Twente 17.8
#2 PSV Eindhoven 17.3
#3 NEC Nijmegen 17.0
#4 Feyenoord 16.9
#5 AZ Alkmaar 15.8
#6 FC Groningen 15.5
#7 FC Utrecht 15.4
#8 SC Heerenveen 14.9
#9 AFC Ajax 14.9
#10 NAC Breda 14.1
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 13.0
#12 SC Telstar 12.8
#13 Fortuna Sittard 12.7
#14 Excelsior 12.5
#15 Go Ahead Eagles 11.5
#16 Heracles Almelo 11.0
#17 FC Volendam 11.0
#18 PEC Zwolle 9.7
League avg
14.1
Total
481 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#18/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 PEC Zwolle 0.12
#2 PSV Eindhoven 0.12
#3 SC Telstar 0.12
#4 AFC Ajax 0.11
#5 Feyenoord 0.11
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 0.11
#7 SC Heerenveen 0.11
#8 AZ Alkmaar 0.11
#9 FC Groningen 0.10
#10 FC Utrecht 0.10
#11 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#12 FC Twente 0.10
#13 Excelsior 0.10
#14 Heracles Almelo 0.10
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 0.10
#16 FC Volendam 0.09
#17 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#18 NAC Breda 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
37.10 npxG from 481 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.8 shots per match
#7/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Feyenoord 10.8
#2 FC Twente 10.8
#3 NEC Nijmegen 11.2
#4 FC Groningen 11.6
#5 PSV Eindhoven 11.7
#6 AZ Alkmaar 12.3
#7 NAC Breda 12.8
#8 AFC Ajax 12.9
#9 FC Utrecht 13.0
#10 SC Heerenveen 14.0
#11 Excelsior 14.7
#12 Fortuna Sittard 15.1
=13 SC Telstar 16.1
=13 Sparta Rotterdam 16.1
#15 Heracles Almelo 16.7
#16 PEC Zwolle 17.3
#17 FC Volendam 17.9
#18 Go Ahead Eagles 19.3
League avg
14.1
Total
435 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#15/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sparta Rotterdam 0.09
#2 FC Volendam 0.09
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.10
#4 Go Ahead Eagles 0.10
#5 FC Twente 0.10
#6 AZ Alkmaar 0.10
#7 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#8 Feyenoord 0.10
#9 AFC Ajax 0.10
#10 SC Heerenveen 0.11
#11 FC Utrecht 0.11
#12 SC Telstar 0.11
#13 Heracles Almelo 0.11
#14 Excelsior 0.11
#15 NAC Breda 0.12
#16 FC Groningen 0.12
#17 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
50.31 npxGA from 435 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 65%

From 293 of 481 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

68% allowed inside the box

League avg 65%

From 297 of 435 shots allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

NAC Breda home and away xG

NAC Breda per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 17
xG / match 1.34 1.04
xGA / match 1.21 1.83
xGD / match +0.13 -0.79
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.46 0.90

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NAC Breda match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
34
xG / match
1.19
xGA / match
1.52
xGD / match
-0.33
Points
29 of 102
  1. Sun 17/05 AZ Alkmaar A xG 2.08 xGA 1.45 xGD +0.63
  2. Mon 11/05 SC Heerenveen H xG 1.86 P xGA 1.00 xGD +0.86
  3. Sat 02/05 FC Utrecht A xG 0.45 xGA 2.90 xGD -2.45
  4. Sat 25/04 AFC Ajax H xG 1.63 xGA 2.29 xGD -0.66
  5. Sun 12/04 Fortuna Sittard A xG 0.75 xGA 1.59 xGD -0.84
  6. Sun 05/04 Sparta Rotterdam H xG 0.51 xGA 0.55 xGD -0.04
  7. Sat 21/03 PEC Zwolle A xG 1.04 xGA 0.82 xGD +0.22
  8. Sun 15/03 Go Ahead Eagles A xG 1.13 xGA 1.56 xGD -0.43
  9. Sun 08/03 Feyenoord H xG 1.03 xGA 1.64 xGD -0.61
  10. Fri 27/02 SC Telstar A xG 0.36 xGA 1.24 xGD -0.88
  11. Sat 21/02 FC Volendam H xG 1.39 xGA 0.52 xGD +0.87
  12. Sat 14/02 Heracles Almelo A xG 1.26 P xGA 1.12 xGD +0.14
  13. Fri 06/02 Excelsior H xG 1.08 xGA 0.86 xGD +0.22
  14. Fri 30/01 FC Twente H xG 1.26 xGA 1.63 xGD -0.37
  15. Sat 24/01 PSV Eindhoven A xG 1.50 xGA 1.79 xGD -0.29
  16. Sat 17/01 NEC Nijmegen H xG 0.82 xGA 1.19 xGD -0.37
  17. Sat 10/01 FC Groningen A xG 0.82 xGA 1.30 xGD -0.48
  18. Sat 20/12 SC Telstar H xG 0.73 xGA 1.48 xGD -0.75
  19. Sun 14/12 FC Utrecht H xG 1.20 xGA 0.66 xGD +0.54
  20. Sun 07/12 Sparta Rotterdam A xG 1.42 xGA 2.43 xGD -1.01
  21. Sat 29/11 Excelsior A xG 1.67 xGA 0.95 P xGD +0.72
  22. Sat 22/11 PSV Eindhoven H xG 1.21 xGA 0.56 xGD +0.65
  23. Sat 08/11 FC Volendam A xG 0.64 xGA 1.76 xGD -1.12
  24. Sat 01/11 Go Ahead Eagles H xG 0.59 xGA 0.65 xGD -0.06
  25. Fri 24/10 SC Heerenveen A xG 1.38 xGA 1.81 xGD -0.43
  26. Sat 18/10 PEC Zwolle H xG 2.54 P xGA 1.47 xGD +1.07
  27. Fri 03/10 FC Groningen H xG 0.69 xGA 1.60 xGD -0.91
  28. Sat 27/09 AFC Ajax A xG 1.57 P xGA 1.87 xGD -0.30
  29. Sat 20/09 Heracles Almelo H Best underlying xG 2.28 xGA 0.90 xGD +1.38
  30. Sat 13/09 FC Twente A xG 0.74 xGA 2.12 P xGD -1.38
  31. Sun 31/08 AZ Alkmaar H xG 1.96 P xGA 2.82 xGD -0.86
  32. Sun 24/08 NEC Nijmegen A Weakest underlying xG 0.61 xGA 4.10 P xGD -3.49
  33. Sun 17/08 Fortuna Sittard H xG 2.01 xGA 0.72 xGD +1.29
  34. Sat 09/08 Feyenoord A xG 0.28 xGA 2.29 xGD -2.01

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.10. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NAC Breda in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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